The views and opinions expressed in this piece are my own (Kevin) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position, or opinion of my employer or any affiliated organisations.

All analysis, projections, and interpretations are based on my personal research and should not be construed as advice or an endorsement by Aknia.

Bitcoin - $0.225m

The spot ETF approval in January 2024 marked a watershed moment, fundamentally altering the demand structure as it opened the floodgates for traditional capital markets to access bitcoin through familiar vehicles.

The magnitude of ETF inflows we witnessed through 2024 not only propelled bitcoin to unprecedented price levels but, more importantly, signaled the asset's evolution from a speculative instrument to a mainstream institutional allocation. Looking ahead to 2025, my analysis suggests substantially higher inflow trajectories as the investment management industry continues to build out bitcoin allocation frameworks.

The supply-side dynamics create an equally compelling narrative. The April 2024 halving event reduced new bitcoin issuance from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, effectively constraining new supply just as institutional demand began accelerating. This supply shock, combined with emerging corporate treasury adoption and potential sovereign purchases, creates a potent catalyst for price appreciation.

Speaking of sovereign adoption, the proposed U.S. strategic reserve initiative warrants particular attention. While my base case remains around $225,000, the implementation of a 1 million BTC reserve would fundamentally reshape market dynamics. Such a development would likely drive prices well beyond $500,000 as it would trigger a cascade of sovereign adoption and effectively remove a significant portion of bitcoin's finite supply from circulation.